What is The Singularity?
What is The Singularity?
1993 by Vernor Vinge
Abstract
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):
1) There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
2) Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
3) Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
4) Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.
[embed]http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html[/embed]
1993 by Vernor Vinge
Abstract
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):
1) There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
2) Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
3) Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
4) Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.
[embed]http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html[/embed]
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